12-Month Cash-Flow Forecast — Fortini Studio
From services to productized revenue: a month-by-month cash map for the next 12 months
Executive summary
Fortini Studio enters this forecast period with R$120,000 in the bank and a clear plan to layer a subscription product on top of retainers and brand sprints. Under base-case assumptions, monthly net cash flow dips slightly in months 2–3 (developer hire + marketing ramp) before turning solidly positive from month 4 onward, closing month 12 with an estimated **R$231,780** in cash — a net gain of **R$111,780** over the year. The tightest point in the year is month 3, when cash briefly dips to R$119,680, just below the starting balance, before recovering.
01Executive Summary
This forecast models Fortini Studio's cash position over the next 12 months as the business transitions from a pure services model (retainers + brand sprints) toward a blended model that adds a R$490/mo subscription product starting in Month 3.
Headline results (base case):
- Cash never goes negative across the 12-month window.
- The tightest month is Month 3, when cash dips to R$119,680 — R$320 below the current balance — driven by the developer hire (Month 2) and rising marketing spend landing before subscription revenue has scaled.
- From Month 4 onward, monthly net cash flow is positive and growing every month, reaching +R$27,400 in Month 11 before the December 13th-salary cost temporarily compresses Month 12's net flow to +R$4,360.
- By Month 12, cumulative cash reaches R$231,780, nearly double the starting position — without any external fundraising.
The core tension to manage isn't liquidity risk (this plan is healthy), it's capacity: brand sprints hit their 20/mo delivery ceiling around Month 11, meaning the subscription product and retainer base become the primary growth levers from that point forward.
02Revenue Build — Assumptions & Trajectory
Three revenue lines are modeled independently and then summed monthly.
Retainers (flat): R$35,000/mo held constant for all 12 months — no new retainer wins assumed, reflecting a conservative stance since the studio's focus is shifting toward the subscription product.
Brand sprints (R$1,490 each): Starting at 8/mo, growing ~10% month-over-month, capped at the studio's stated delivery capacity of 20/mo. Growth compounds through Month 10, then flattens at the ceiling in Months 11–12.
| Month | Sprints Delivered | Sprint Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | R$11,920 |
| 2 | 9 | R$13,410 |
| 3 | 10 | R$14,900 |
| 4 | 11 | R$16,390 |
| 5 | 12 | R$17,880 |
| 6 | 13 | R$19,370 |
| 7 | 14 | R$20,860 |
| 8 | 15 | R$22,350 |
| 9 | 17 | R$25,330 |
| 10 | 19 | R$28,310 |
| 11 | 20 (cap) | R$29,800 |
| 12 | 20 (cap) | R$29,800 |
Subscriptions (R$490/mo, launching Month 3): Modeled with 5 new subscribers added per month and 3% monthly churn on the existing base. The subscriber count compounds steadily, reaching 44 active subscribers by Month 12.
| Month | New Subs | Active Subs (EOM) | Subscription Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5 | 5 | R$2,450 |
| 4 | 5 | 10 | R$4,900 |
| 5 | 5 | 15 | R$7,350 |
| 6 | 5 | 20 | R$9,800 |
| 7 | 5 | 24 | R$11,760 |
| 8 | 5 | 28 | R$13,720 |
| 9 | 5 | 32 | R$15,680 |
| 10 | 5 | 36 | R$17,640 |
| 11 | 5 | 40 | R$19,600 |
| 12 | 5 | 44 | R$21,560 |
By Month 12, subscriptions alone contribute ~25% of total monthly revenue — up from 0% at the start of the year — validating the productization strategy even at a modest 5 net-new signups per month.
03Cost Structure & Hiring Plan
Costs are grouped into fixed operating costs, the new developer hire, ramping marketing spend, and the December 13th-salary obligation.
- Fixed costs: R$38,000/mo, constant across all 12 months (partner draws, tools, workspace, contractor retainers).
- Developer hire: +R$11,000/mo starting Month 2 and continuing through Month 12 (11 months of added payroll).
- Marketing: Ramps linearly from R$3,000 (Month 1) to R$8,000 (Month 6), then holds flat at R$8,000/mo for the remainder of the year.
- 13th salary (December): A one-time R$25,000 lump cost in Month 12, reflecting Brazil's mandatory 13th-salary payment for the core team (partners + developer). This is an assumption pending confirmation of exact payroll base.
| Month | Fixed | Developer | Marketing | 13th Salary | Total Costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R$38,000 | R$0 | R$3,000 | R$0 | R$41,000 |
| 2 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$4,000 | R$0 | R$53,000 |
| 3 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$5,000 | R$0 | R$54,000 |
| 4 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$6,000 | R$0 | R$55,000 |
| 5 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$7,000 | R$0 | R$56,000 |
| 6 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$8,000 | R$0 | R$57,000 |
| 7–11 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$8,000 | R$0 | R$57,000 each |
| 12 | R$38,000 | R$11,000 | R$8,000 | R$25,000 | R$82,000 |
Total 12-month costs: R$683,000.
04Monthly Cash Flow Forecast
Combining revenue and costs gives the month-by-month net cash flow and running cash balance, starting from R$120,000 on hand today.
| Month | Retainers | Sprint Rev. | Sub Rev. | Total Revenue | Total Costs | Net Cash Flow | Ending Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R$35,000 | R$11,920 | R$0 | R$46,920 | R$41,000 | +R$5,920 | R$125,920 |
| 2 | R$35,000 | R$13,410 | R$0 | R$48,410 | R$53,000 | -R$4,590 | R$121,330 |
| 3 | R$35,000 | R$14,900 | R$2,450 | R$52,350 | R$54,000 | -R$1,650 | R$119,680 |
| 4 | R$35,000 | R$16,390 | R$4,900 | R$56,290 | R$55,000 | +R$1,290 | R$120,970 |
| 5 | R$35,000 | R$17,880 | R$7,350 | R$60,230 | R$56,000 | +R$4,230 | R$125,200 |
| 6 | R$35,000 | R$19,370 | R$9,800 | R$64,170 | R$57,000 | +R$7,170 | R$132,370 |
| 7 | R$35,000 | R$20,860 | R$11,760 | R$67,620 | R$57,000 | +R$10,620 | R$142,990 |
| 8 | R$35,000 | R$22,350 | R$13,720 | R$71,070 | R$57,000 | +R$14,070 | R$157,060 |
| 9 | R$35,000 | R$25,330 | R$15,680 | R$76,010 | R$57,000 | +R$19,010 | R$176,070 |
| 10 | R$35,000 | R$28,310 | R$17,640 | R$80,950 | R$57,000 | +R$23,950 | R$200,020 |
| 11 | R$35,000 | R$29,800 | R$19,600 | R$84,400 | R$57,000 | +R$27,400 | R$227,420 |
| 12 | R$35,000 | R$29,800 | R$21,560 | R$86,360 | R$82,000 | +R$4,360 | R$231,780 |
Totals: Revenue R$794,780 · Costs R$683,000 · Net Cash Generated R$111,780.
05Runway & Liquidity Analysis
Fortini Studio does not face a runway problem under this plan — cash grows every month except a shallow two-month dip in Months 2–3, driven by the developer hire landing before subscription revenue ramps.
- Minimum cash buffer maintained: R$119,680 (Month 3), only ~R$320 below today's balance — a very thin but non-critical dip.
- Break-even on the developer hire: The added R$11,000/mo cost is fully offset by sprint + subscription growth by Month 4, when net cash flow turns positive again.
- December seasonality: The 13th-salary payment cuts Month 12's net flow from a would-be +R$29,360 down to +R$4,360 — worth budgeting for explicitly rather than treating as a surprise.
- Cash-on-hand coverage: Even in the worst month, current cash covers ~2.9x that month's total operating costs — a comfortable liquidity position for a 2–10 person studio with no fundraising planned.
06Scenario Sensitivity (Directional)
To stress-test the base case, two alternate scenarios were modeled directionally — useful for gut-checking decisions like the marketing ramp or hiring timeline, not as precise forecasts.
| Scenario | Key Differences | Est. 12-Month Revenue | Est. Ending Cash (Month 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | Sprint growth flattens at ~5%/mo, only 3 new subs/mo, churn rises to 5% | ~R$680,000 | ~R$117,000 (roughly flat vs. today) |
| Base Case | As modeled above | R$794,780 | R$231,780 |
| Upside | Sprint pipeline stays strong past the 20/mo cap (price increase instead of volume), 8 new subs/mo, churn holds at 3% | ~R$900,000+ | ~R$337,000 |
The key takeaway: even the downside scenario doesn't threaten solvency — it simply erases most of the year's cash growth. The upside case shows the real prize is in subscription velocity and pricing power once sprint capacity caps out, not in adding more sprint volume.
07Key Risks & Watch Items
- Sprint capacity ceiling (Month 11+): Once sprints hit 20/mo, that revenue line is capped by design. Recommend testing a price increase on sprints (e.g., R$1,490 → R$1,690) once demand consistently exceeds 18/mo, rather than trying to scale headcount to serve more volume.
- Subscription churn is the single biggest lever on Month 6–12 cash. At 3% churn, the base compounds nicely; at 5%+, subscription revenue growth flattens materially (see downside scenario). Track cohort retention monthly starting Month 4.
- December cash compression: The 13th-salary obligation (est. R$25,000) should be set aside progressively (e.g., R$2,500/mo from Month 6) rather than absorbed as a lump cost in December — this smooths the year-end dip shown in the table above.
- Marketing ROI checkpoint at Month 6: Spend triples from R$3k to R$8k/mo by Month 6. If subscription signups aren't tracking near 5/mo by then, pause further increases and re-evaluate channel mix before committing to sustained R$8k/mo spend.
- Retainer concentration: Retainers are modeled flat at R$35,000/mo with no growth or attrition assumed. Any retainer client loss would hit cash faster than any other line — worth a quarterly check-in on retainer client health.
08Recommendations & Next Steps
- Build a December sinking fund — start setting aside ~R$2,500/mo from Month 6 to fully pre-fund the 13th-salary payment and avoid the Month 12 cash-flow squeeze shown above.
- Set a sprint price review trigger at 18/mo bookings (reached around Month 9–10) to test a price increase before hitting the hard 20/mo capacity ceiling.
- Instrument subscription churn tracking from day one of launch (Month 3) — even a 2-point swing in churn materially changes the Month 9–12 cash trajectory.
- Re-run this forecast at Month 3 and Month 6 with actuals, since that's when the two biggest assumptions (developer productivity, marketing ROI on subscriptions) will have real data behind them.
- Treat the current R$120,000 balance as a strategic buffer, not idle cash — the model shows it's not needed to cover operations, so consider whether a portion could be allocated to accelerating the subscription build (e.g., a dedicated landing page or onboarding automation) to pull upside-scenario growth forward.
Assumptions made
- Month 1 is treated as the current/starting month, with the R$120,000 cash balance held at the very start of Month 1.
- Retainer revenue (R$35,000/mo) is assumed flat for all 12 months with no new wins or losses.
- Brand sprint growth of ~10% MoM is rounded to the nearest whole sprint each month and hard-capped at 20/mo per stated delivery capacity.
- Subscription revenue assumes 5 new subscribers added per month from launch (Month 3) onward, with 3% monthly churn applied to the existing base before new adds; subscriber counts are rounded to whole numbers each month.
- The developer hire's R$11,000/mo cost begins in Month 2 and is assumed fully loaded (salary + payroll burden) with no ramp-up discount.
- Marketing spend is assumed to ramp linearly from R$3,000 to R$8,000 between Months 1–6, then hold flat at R$8,000/mo through Month 12.
- The 13th-salary payment is estimated at R$25,000 as a one-time Month 12 cost, based on an assumed payroll base of the two partners plus the developer — this should be confirmed against actual payroll records.
- All figures are in BRL (R$) and exclude taxes, transaction fees, and any owner distributions beyond what's embedded in the R$38,000 fixed cost line.
- No fundraising, debt financing, or one-time capital events are modeled, consistent with the brief.
Informational purposes only — not legal/financial advice; have a professional review before use.